The urban island: climatic suitability of <i>Linepithema humile</i> (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) and the role of cities in the invasion of the Western Palearctic

Urban environments often present environmental conditions that facilitate the introduction and establishment of nonnative and invasive species. These can expand their range into areas with unfavorable climates by taking advantage of the ecological and climatic homogenization of cities, bypassing the ecological barriers presented by the surrounding environment. One way to monitor the expansion of these species is using potential distribution models. We used as a model species the Argentine ant, Linepithema humile (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) whose invasion has caused serious consequences for biodiversity and economic losses worldwide. We used the average result of six different algorithms and used climatic variables and population density as a proxy for the urbanization level in the Western Palearctic to build the predictive model. The model indicates this ant prefers to inhabit areas with Mediterranean and Temperate Oceanic climates and that its suitability depends on two main factors: the continentality (temperature annual range) and the degree of urbanization. The species is predicted to be absent in areas with large temperature contrasts throughout the year, particularly in rural and peri-urban areas (i.e. adjacent to urban areas) of inland regions. Conversely, the species has a predilection for coastal and urban areas where environmental conditions are attenuated by the influence of the sea or the "urban heat island" effect in the case of inland cities. In this sense, cities act as "bioclimatic islands" facilitating the establishment of the Argentine ant as a reservoir, enlarging its distribution into climatically nonoptimal areas, and promoting its future expansion in a scenario of global warming and socioeconomic change.