Evolution of Resilience Spatiotemporal Patterns and Spatial Correlation Networks in African Regional Economies

This paper comprehensively utilizes the entropy-TOPSIS method, Lyapunov index, and kernel density estimation to measure the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of regional economic resilience in 52 African countries (regions) from 2008 to 2019. It also examines the spatial network characteristics of regional economic resilience in each country (region) through gravity models and social network analysis. The findings reveal that: (1) Although the resilience of African regional economies fluctuates, it generally shows an improving trend. Traditional economic powers and regional giants such as Libya, Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia demonstrate outstanding performance in economic resilience. (2) In terms of scale resilience, the countries along the North African Mediterranean coast exhibit particularly prominent advantages. However, the overall performance of Africa in fiscal resilience and openness resilience tends to be weak. Industrial resilience is influenced by colonial legacies and tends to stabilize. (3) The differences in economic resilience values and the fluctuation trajectories of economic resilience levels converge. North African economies exhibit resilience far higher than the mean and other regions, while East, West, and Central Africa consistently perform below the mean in the long term. Southern Africa’s gap from the mean is relatively small, leading to a stalemate. The fluctuation amplitude of differences within each region varies. (4) The overall level of resilience in African regional economies has steadily improved, displaying a trend of polarization. There is evident spatial polarization in West Africa, with Southern Africa demonstrating a trend of multipolarity transitioning towards bipolarity. Conversely, North Africa strengthens its features of bipolar differentiation, while East and Central Africa exhibit tendencies towards multipolarity. (5) Despite some fluctuations in the spatial network of regional economic resilience around 2016, connections among African countries have become increasingly tight, gradually forming three major spatial correlation network clusters: the North African Mediterranean coast, the West–Central African Pan-Gulf of Guinea region, and the East–South African Rift Valley region. Nigeria holds a prominent position as a regional core. Zambia, Cameroon, and the Central African Republic have played certain regional core roles at different times. Nigeria and South Africa also demonstrate significant intermediary roles, while Zambia, Cameroon, and Burkina Faso act as bridges in different periods of network connections. Based on the characteristics of spatial correlation networks, African regions gradually form four major cohesive subgroups and eight sub-subgroups.