Enhancing supply chain resilience through risk mitigation strategies: Evidence from smallholder red chili supply chains in East Java Indonesia

The cultivation of red chili in East Java, Indonesia, has significant economic and social impacts, necessitating proactive supply chain measures. This research aimed to identify priority risk agents, develop effective risk mitigation, and enhance supply chain resilience using the SCOR model, House of Risk, Interpretative Structural Modelling (ISM), and synthesis analysis. Examining 238 respondents—including farmers, collectors, wholesalers, retailers, home-agroindustries, and experts—the findings highlight farmers’ critical role in supply chain resilience despite risks from crop failures, weather fluctuations, and pest infestations. Simultaneous planting led to market oversupply and price drops, but accurate pricing information facilitated quick market adaptation. Wholesalers influenced pricing dynamics and income levels, impacting farmers directly. To improve resilience, three main strategies were developed through ten key elements: proactive strategies (real-time SCM tracking, Weather Early Warning Systems, risk management team formation, and training), resistance strategies (partnerships, chili stock reserves, storage and drying technologies, GAP implementation, post-harvest management, agricultural insurance, and Fair Profit Sharing Agreements), and recovery and growth strategies (flexible distribution channels and customizable distribution centers). Furthermore, the study delves into the mediating and moderating effects between variables within the model. This research not only addresses a knowledge gap but also provides stakeholders with evidence to consider new strategies to enhance red chili supply resilience.