Weather conditions and tourism demand: A tested by threshold regression in 5 major tourism destinations in Thailand

The objective of this study is to explore the relationship between changing weather conditions and tourism demand in Thailand across five selected provinces: Chonburi (Pattaya), Surat Thani, Phuket, Chiang Mai, and Bangkok. The annual data used in this study from 2012 to 2022. The estimation method is threshold regression (TR). The results indicate that weather conditions proxied by the Temperature Humidity Index (THI) significantly affect tourism demand in these five provinces. Specifically, changes in weather conditions, such as an increase in temperature, generally result in a decrease in tourism demand. However, the impact of weather conditions varies according to each province’s unique characteristics or highlights. For example, tourism demand in Bangkok is not significantly affected by weather conditions. In contrast, provinces that rely heavily on maritime tourism, such as Chonburi (Pattaya), Phuket, and Surat Thani, are notably affected by weather conditions. When the THI in each province rises beyond a certain threshold, the demand for tourism in these provinces by foreign tourists decreases significantly. Furthermore, economic factors, particularly tourists’ income, significantly impact tourism demand. An increase in the income of foreign tourists is associated with a decrease in tourism in Pattaya. This trend possibly occurs because higher-income tourists tend to upgrade their travel destinations from Pattaya to more upscale locations such as Phuket or Surat Thani. For Thai tourists, an increase in income leads to a decrease in domestic tourism, as higher incomes enable more frequent international travel, thereby reducing tourism in the five provinces. Additionally, the study found that the availability and convenience of accommodation and food services are critical factors influencing tourism demand in all the provinces studied.