Media Content, African Swine Fever, a Trade War, and U.S. Lean Hog Futures

Abstract In 2018 and 2019, China’s outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) and the U.S.–China trade war captured media headlines worldwide. This research uses a unique data set of media headlines and sentiments to estimate the impact of media on U.S. lean hog futures prices for nearby and distant expiration contracts. Findings suggest futures prices are influenced by news media content, with results differing by time to contract expiration and sentiment of the headline. International headlines with positive and negative connotations toward ASF and trade war have more significant effects, indicating sensationalist media creates the greatest price movements compared to neutral headlines.