Evaluating the potential of green hydrogen, ammonia and urea in Lao PDR energy transitions.

Abstract We report the results of a systematic evaluation of the redeployment of surplus hydropower electricity to produce green hydrogen (H 2 ), ammonia (NH 3 ) and urea (CH 4 N 2 O) in Lao PDR. Participatory system mapping (PSM) workshops convened across multiple Lao PDR ministries revealed both direct and indirect opportunities and risks as probable consequences of green H 2 , NH 3 and urea production. Participants debated and prioritized green urea fertilizer to replace “grey” imports; coal co-firing; and fuel cells as the products that contribute to the opportunities and manage the risks identified by the PSM process. Techno-economic modelling indicates the levelized cost of urea (US$467/tonne) is competitive with Thai imports, associated with opportunities for trading carbon offsets. Carbon credits were not sufficient to offset the additional co-firing costs of coal generation, and fuel cells are a likely future enterprise. A targeted capacity building and training program was a central pillar of a systems-based dissemination strategy to develop necessary technical and planning skills and community and awareness raising. The collated research results represent an integrated foundation to draft the Lao PDR National green H 2 and NH 3 road map and action plan, and a cross-sectoral revision of energy transition development plans.