Can rural counties benefit from high-speed rail investments? The distributive economic impacts of constructing the Dallas-Houston line

• The construction of DAL-HOU HSR line in Texas with $15 billion investment will generate $32.27 billion economic outputs across the state. • The economic impacts have uneven distribution. Over 98 percent of the economic outputs will be distributed in the Dallas and Houston metropolitan areas. Only 0.5 percent of the outputs leaked to the rural areas within the Texas Triangle. • The suburbs have better economic connections to the metropolitan areas than rural counties through intermediate purchases for manufacturing sectors. For rural areas, those with agriculture as primary industry receive less economic impact than those with manufacturing as primary industry. • Only counties with terminal stations could have positive receivable ratios from the construction investment, while the rest of the counties along the way generates more indirect and induced effects to other counties, mostly the metropolitan counties, than those received. • To stimulate economic growth in rural counties with HSR investment, local government should provide incentives for private investment in local industries and encourage local purchases. High-speed rail (HSR) investments have demonstrated significant economic benefits in many regions around the world. However, there have been ongoing concerns over the potential unjust effects of HSR development on the rural areas where HSR routes traverse. In the United States, resistance from rural landowners is a major factor that has delayed or derailed numerous HSR projects. Understanding whether and how rural areas may or may not benefit from HSR investments helps facilitate timely project delivery and inform supplementary policymaking to achieve broader societal benefits. This paper presents a case study of the Dallas – Houston HSR line in Texas, USA, a proposed project with private investments totaling $16 billion from Texas Central Railroad, LLC. Applying Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) modeling, the study estimates the economic impacts of investing in the Dallas-Houston HSR line and examines the spatial and sectoral distributions of the impacts across the rural counties along the project alignment. The privately funded Dallas – Houston HSR project stalled after a decade-long effort, largely due to opposition from the rural counties along the line. The recent formation of the Amtrak-Texas Central partnership has brought back hope to revive the HSR proposal. The findings of this study are informative for Amtrak-Texas Central to develop strategies that address the unbalanced rural–urban impacts of constructing the HSR line for ultimate project success.