Discounted monetary value of human lives lost during the mass demonstrations in Khartoum State, Sudan, 2022

BACKGROUND: Sudan is rich in natural resources and diverse climate but faces significant food insecurity. The country’s challenges stem from prolonged civil wars and economic decline after South Sudan’s secession, leading to political instability and uprisings. The human cost has been devastating, with millions killed or affected by violence, displacement, and infrastructure destruction. OBJECTIVE: This paper aimed to estimate the total discounted value of 112 human lives lost during peaceful demonstrations in Khartoum State in 2022. METHODS: Data collected by the Doctors’ Committee from Oct 2021 to Oct 2023 was used. The Human Capital approach (HCA) estimated the total discounted value of human lives lost using a 3% discount rate and the national life expectancy in 2022 as 65.86. Sensitivity analysis tested the robustness of the results. The model was re-estimated using 5% and 10% discount rates and global and Sub-Saharan life expectancies. RESULTS: Human lives lost had a total discounted value of $1,871,745 and an average value of $136,816 per life. Recalculating the total discounted value of human lives lost (TDVHL) using higher rates, 5% and 10%, reduced the values by $499,516 (26.7%) and $1,094,609 (58.5%), respectively. Using Sub-Saharan life expectancy reduced the TDVHL by $105,821 (5.7%), while the global life expectancy increased it by $130,992 (7.0%). About 82% of the TDVHL was shared by dead persons aged 15-29. The average value per dead person decreased with age. The average for the 14-19 age group was almost four times that of the 55-59 group. CONCLUSION: The study reveals the high economic cost of premature deaths from mass demonstrations in Khartoum State, stressing the need for policies protecting young people and promoting stability to drive economic growth and sustainable development KEYWORDS: Human Capital Approach, Life expectancy, Dead persons, Mass demonstrations, Sensitivity analysis, Total discounted value of human lives lost