A modeling framework for quantifying spatial recruitment dynamics using abundance estimation and sibship analysis

Quantifying recruitment at the sibling group offers a powerful methodology for understanding density-dependent and environmental drivers of recruitment. We propose a modeling framework that combines sibship and abundance estimation datasets to estimate mean sibling group size, sibling group size process error, environmental and density-dependent effects on sibling group size, dispersal, and mortality rate. Geographic states in the model consist of discrete habitat patches connected via dispersal. Simulations were used to investigate the influence of sampling processes and sibling group size on parameter estimation within our modeling framework. Mean sibling-group size, environmental effects on recruitment, and dispersal rate among habitat patches were estimated with high accuracy under a wide range of sampling conditions, including imprecise out-of-model estimates of capture probability and subsampling both within and among habitat patches. Density-dependent effects on recruitment and process error tended to be estimated with lower accuracy, though accuracy improved as sibling group size or sampling intensity increased. The main contribution of this research is a flexible quantitative modeling framework for parameterizing mechanistic models of recruitment dynamics with empirical sibship data.