Comparative analysis of Indonesia’s energy system scenarios: Assessing emissions reduction strategies and cost-effectiveness

Abstract This research conducts a comprehensive comparative analysis of energy system scenarios in Indonesia, examining their emissions reduction strategies and cost-effectiveness. The study utilizes the least-cost optimization approach using LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System) and NEMO (Next Energy Modeling system for Optimization). Four distinct scenarios are evaluated: Business as Usual (BAU), Zero Emissions (ZER), Demand Reduction (DMR), and Net Zero Emission (NZE). The findings suggest that while the ZER scenario may achieve significant emission reductions compared to BAU, with an average of 382.9 million tons CO 2 e/year, it comes at a higher cost per unit of emission mitigated by the average of 170.8 USD/tons CO 2 e. On the other hand, the DMR scenario, with its focus on demand-side management, offers a more cost-effective approach to emission mitigation, reaching 81.0 USD/tons CO 2 e. Combining both strategies, the NZE scenario proves to be the most effective in emission mitigation and cost, with 693.7 million tons CO 2 e/year and 54.0 USD/tons CO 2 e, respectively. This research seeks to inform Indonesian policymakers, energy planners, and stakeholders in developing sustainable energy systems that effectively reduce emissions while considering economic feasibility.