Russia will weigh up escalatory options

Significance President Vladimir Putin’s assertion that permission for Ukraine to use long-range missiles against targets inside Russia “will mean that NATO countries, the United States, European countries, are at war with Russia” has focused attention on his possible escalatory options. Impacts Each time a Russian ‘red line’ is crossed, the assumption that Russian warnings are bluffs will become more entrenched in the West. Any Russian response will likely increase the risk of direct conflict with the West. Perceptions that the risk of war between Russia and NATO is rising could alarm those who think it is time to impose an ‘ugly peace’ on Kyiv. Putin’s belligerent rhetoric will concern those within the Russian elite who are more interested in how to end, not expand, the conflict.