Living on the edge: identifying demographic bottlenecks in an isolated sage‐grouse population

The greater sage‐grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus : hereafter sage‐grouse) population in Modoc County California is geographically isolated and contains a single lek (from 56 leks in the 1940s), despite significant efforts to increase the population through translocations and habitat improvement. Repeated wildfire within the landscape has led to an increase in invasive annual grasses and a decrease in sagebrush ( Artemisia sp.) cover in important nesting and brood‐rearing habitat. We estimated survival for adult females, nests, and chicks and assessed biotic characteristics that may influence these survival estimates to identify factors that may be limiting population growth. We monitored 37 female sage‐grouse marked with GPS PTTS, 39 nests, and 8 broods for 3 years (2019–2021). We measured vegetation characteristics for nests at the microsite and landscape scale to evaluate effects on daily nest survival (DNS). We used survival rates from all life stages to parameterize matrix models and estimate population growth rate. Mean nest success over 3 years was 29% (95% CI: 17.1–44.8) across a 29‐day incubation period and DNS declined as the proportion of both medusahead Taeniatherum caput‐medusae and Japanese brome Bromus japonicus around the nest increased. Across all three years, mean chick survival across a 54‐day period was 44% (95% CI: 0.9–72.3) and mean annual survival for adult females was 29% (95% CI: 17.8–43.7). Our estimated vital rates were 45–55% lower than distribution‐wide estimates and the projected population growth rate was strongly declining (0.411, 95% CI: 0.30–0.52). Our results suggested recent cover changes associated with wildfire on the study area may have had a detrimental effect on this population across all life stages, and if attention is not given to preventing the transition from sagebrush communities into invasive grasslands, this population and others in degraded landscapes may not persist.