Unleashing the power of innovation and sustainability: Transforming cereal production in the BRICS countries

Amidst escalating food insecurity and climate change threats, which exacerbate food shortages and increase agricultural emissions, this paper explores transformative strategies in cereal production within the BRICS countries from 1990 to 2021. The uncontrolled growth of intensive agriculture, aimed at satisfying the growing global demand for food in a context already threatened by climate change, has led to a uniformity of crops with devastating impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, resulting in a transformation of soil and its capacity to implement ecosystem services, such as food, fiber, and raw material production, nutrient recycling, carbon sequestration, clean water availability, and the regulation of water regimes and local temperatures. These changes have had negative consequences on agricultural production. Thus, sustainable agriculture faces three closely related challenges: reducing environmental impact, in-creasing productivity, and adapting to and mitigating climate change. This analysis utilizes advanced econometric tools such as panel second-generation unit root tests, Westerlund's cointegration test, second-generation long-run estimators, and the Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test, together with several machine learning algorithms, to investigate the influence of technological innovations and improved land management on cereal yields. The findings demonstrate a positive correlation between technological advancements, enhanced land management for cereal cultivation, and the food production index with increased cereal output. At the same time, emissions from agriculture significantly reduce yields over time. Furthermore, an interaction analysis reveals that the comprehensive integration of these factors significantly boosts cereal productivity. The study also identifies directional causal relationships between technological and emission factors and cereal production, suggesting a complex interplay with land use. Sustainable land use is one of the key conditions for ensuring the ecological resilience of agricultural practices in terms of providing ecosystem services. Implementing these strategies calls for a collaborative approach among governments, policymakers, farmers, researchers, and other stakeholders, considering each BRICS nation's unique environmental, socio-economic, and local contexts, and fostering regional cooperation to promote sustainable agricultural practices.