A Longitudinal Study of the Impact of COVID-19 on Optimism Prediction

The purpose of this longitudinal study was to investigate how optimistic predictions, hopelessness, and depressive symptoms changed as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the causal relationships between these variables. To achieve this purpose, we used data from online surveys conducted in 2019 and 2021 among men and women aged 20-79. Based on item response theory, we developed a future prediction task for the assessment of optimistic predictions. Our comparison of online survey responses found a decline in optimistic predictions before and after the pandemic. More specifically, there were no change in predictions of negative future events, but there was the decrease in predictions of positive future events. Furthermore, we found that those who were more stressed by COVID-19 were less likely to have an optimistic view of the near future. We also found a relationship between optimistic predictions and hopelessness and depressive symptoms with lower optimism predicting more hopelessness and more depression predicting lower optimism. To prevent feelings of hopelessness, it is important to help people develop positive expectations about the future.