Local agricultural markets and external shocks – the case of Poland

Abstract We quantify the role of individual factors in shaping the domestic prices of selected grains and oilseeds in Poland and test the hypothesis of whether a favorable supply situation can isolate the domestic market from external shocks. We carried out estimations using error correction and local projection econometric models. The results lead to the following conclusions. First, futures contracts have a significant impact on domestic prices of wheat, corn, and rapeseed. Second, an important factor that determines the prices of wheat, corn, and rapeseed is the EUR/PLN exchange rate. However, the strength of this influence and its time horizon differs strongly depending on the analyzed commodity. Third, the influence of other factors is limited. The obtained results indicate that Poland’s relatively high degree of self-sufficiency in the production of wheat, corn, and rapeseed does not isolate the prices of these agricultural commodities from the impact of external factors.