Futures of Outcome‐Based Contracts for industrial equipment: A Disaggregative Delphi study

This study explores the dynamic landscape of Outcome-Based Contracts (OBCs) within industrial equipment and investigates how external changes influence OBC feasibility. Employing Disaggregate Delphi involving panels of experts from industry and academia, the research uncovers critical insights of the relationship between OBCs and external changes. The analysis reveals that external changes can significantly impact the feasibility and profitability of OBCs for the supplier. These changes, having direct and indirect impacts, sometimes cascading through chains of events, necessitate proactive management strategies. The study underlines the role of context, in business environment, business model configuration, and product characteristics, in influencing OBC susceptibility to changes. Furthermore, it highlights that parties can inadvertently trigger impacts in response to external change. This research contributes to business model literature by shedding light on the multifaceted impacts of external changes on OBCs. It expands the understanding of how changes can have both positive and negative effects, emphasizing the importance of dynamic business model and contract frameworks. Additionally, the study underscores futures thinking and the significance of proactivity in navigating the evolving landscape of OBCs within industrial equipment OBCs as well as identifies uncertainty as one of the central value propositions of OBCs. • Outcome-Based Contracts in industrial equipment, having long equipment lifetimes, are susceptible to external changes. • Changes can improve or lower the feasibility of OBCs for the supplier through direct and indirect, negative, and positive impacts. • Uncertainty was found to be one of the central reasons for customer interest in OBCs, to outsource future risk through these risk-and-reward-sharing contracts. • Contextual factors in the environment, business model, product features, geography, and resource consumption were identified.