Winning the transition: Strategic state action in France and Germany amid the low carbon transition and energy shock

European economies are in flux, destabilized by the low carbon transition (LCT) and post-Ukraine energy shock. How are states responding to this instability? This article contributes to emerging environmentally focused Comparative Capitalisms (CC) scholarship by developing a novel framework for analysing how state action is shaped by the demand-competitiveness-energy nexus. We comparatively examine the cases of France and Germany since 2022, drawing upon 19 elite interviews and documentary analysis of stakeholder accounts, to advance three arguments. First, it is essential for CC frameworks to integrate energy supply dynamics to understand state action and processes of capitalist development. Second, the asymmetric impact of the LCT on France and Germany has shaped distinct state-led capitalist restructuring designed to protect and extend national competitive advantages. For Germany, this has primarily involved ‘greening’ its existing export-led model of growth, whereas French state actors are attempting to advance its interests via the ‘strategic autonomy’ (SA) agenda at the domestic and regional levels. Finally, the energy shock has initiated more interventionist state action in Germany that exposes critical instabilities in its export-led growth model. This analysis has significant implications for CC scholarship and its understanding of capitalist development by illustrating the significance of energy supply dynamics and advancing understanding of how disequilibrium can be theorized within the literature.