Abstract A143: The development of a risk prediction model to predict patients’ likelihood of completing human papillomavirus vaccination

Abstract Background: Human Papillomavirus (HPV) cancers can be preventable if HPV vaccination is received in adolescents before the age of 13, yet only 55% of Oregonian adolescents had an HPV series completion in 2020.2 The recommended vaccination age for HPV recently dropped to age 9. This new recommended age allows providers to offer HPV vaccination with routine vaccinations. To further increase HPV vaccination rates, research is critically needed on new interventions to promote vaccination among vaccine resistant groups, and populations that are most in need of targeted interventions. We assessed patterns in vaccination from 2015-2022, in preparation of the development of a prognostic risk prediction model to identify patients’ likelihood of obtaining HPV vaccination. Methods: We used a retrospective cohort from a large health system to assess vaccination patterns from 2015-2022. Eligible patients were members of Kaiser Permanente Northwest, 9-18 years old, and did not have a history of adverse vaccination outcomes. We assessed vaccination initiation, completion by age, gender and year. Results: Among 29,398 eligible patients, 44.3% had no vaccination, 14.5% had one dose, and 41.2% had completed the series. More patients were vaccinating at earlier ages from 2015-2022. Of those with one dose or who had completed the series, 84% had vaccinated by the age of 12 in 2022 compared to 74% in 2015. The change was greater in boys with 70.5% before age 12 in 2015 compared with 84% in 2022. ConclusionsWhile efforts to increase HPV vaccination and initiate at younger ages have been successful, efforts need to be targeted to specific populations. The patterns of HPV vaccination over the past 7 years highlights improvement, but system level interventions may be needed to adequately increase vaccination among resistant populations. This presentation will discuss the assessment of vaccination patterns in preparation of the development of a prognostic risk prediction model and describe how the model will be used in a system to target populations for early interventions to complete vaccination. Citation Format: Amanda A. Petrik, Matthew Slaugher, Gloria Coronado, Eric Johnson. The development of a risk prediction model to predict patients’ likelihood of completing human papillomavirus vaccination [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 17th AACR Conference on the Science of Cancer Health Disparities in Racial/Ethnic Minorities and the Medically Underserved; 2024 Sep 21-24; Los Angeles, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2024;33(9 Suppl):Abstract nr A143.