A robust decision-making approach in climate policy design for possible net zero futures

The energy modelling community’s analysis of net zero often relies on approaches that hide the extent of uncertainty. Meanwhile the extent of uncertainty involved in the realisation of net zero is proliferating. Conventional consolidative modelling approaches lack of transparency is distorting decision making and policy design around net zero. This contribution uses the UK’s Committee on Climate Changes 6th Carbon Budget as a case study. An exploratory, Robust Decision-Making approach is used to highlight the fragility of conventional UK modelling approaches in shaping national climate policy. A new suite of tools, orientation of analysis and mixed approaches are needed to address the extent of complexity, uncertainty and emergence in possible net zero futures. Only then will robust, inclusive and realisable climate policy be designed. • Conventional optimisation approaches to net zero modelling are distorting climate policy design. • There is a need for recognition of the deep uncertainty which pervades possible net zero futures. • This demands the use of exploratory approaches such as Robust Decision Making (RDM). • A RDM approach of the UK’s 2050 Carbon Removal portfolio exposes substantial uncertainties and vulnerabilities. • The RDM approach allows broader stakeholder engagement as part of deliberation with analysis process.