Multi-Step-Ahead Prediction of Chaotic Time Series: Self-Healing Algorithm for Restoring Values at Non-Predictable Points

Problem: The study proposes a new algorithm for multi-step-ahead prediction of chaotic time series within the framework of the clustering-based forecasting paradigm. The introduction of the concept of non-predictable points enabled to avoid the exponential growth of the prediction error as a function of the number of steps ahead, which made it possible to develop algorithms that predict many Lyapunov times (and many steps) ahead – the price for this turned out to be that some points remained non-predictable. In this work, we say that it is necessary to be of great help regarding the exemption and development of the scientific university. Method: This study proposes a self-healing algorithm, which is an iterative algorithm that takes as input the forecasts produced by the underlying prediction algorithm. At each iteration, the self-healing algorithm finds new possible predicted values, updates the status of the points from predictable to non-predictable or vice versa, and calculates new single predicted values for the predictable points. The study proposes several new algorithms for calculating a single prediction value and algorithms for determining non-predictable points. We have studied new publications of parameter estimates, importance monitoring, and predictive features with more views and size objectives. Results: In the results of our work, the new tools in specific indicators: RMSE was increased from 0.11 to 0.06, and MAPE was reduced from 0.38 to 0.04. Conclusion: Research has been conducted on the selection of parameters for the self-healing algorithm, its assessment, and the prediction quality compared to the existing prediction algorithm.

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Publication Details

Journal
Qubahan Academic Journal
Published
2024-09-21
DOI
https://doi.org/10.48161/qaj.v4n3a912
Citations
1
Primary Topic
Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.35

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article

Multi-Step-Ahead Prediction of Chaotic Time Series: Self-Healing Algorithm for Restoring Values at Non-Predictable Points

Vasilii A. Gromov, Korney K. Tomashchuk, Alexey A. Rukavishnikov
1 citations
Qubahan Academic Journal
Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
0.35
article

Multi-Step-Ahead Prediction of Chaotic Time Series: Self-Healing Algorithm for Restoring Values at Non-Predictable Points

Vasilii A. Gromov, Korney K. Tomashchuk, Alexey A. Rukavishnikov
article en
1 citations

Abstract

Problem: The study proposes a new algorithm for multi-step-ahead prediction of chaotic time series within the framework of the clustering-based forecasting paradigm. The introduction of the concept of non-predictable points enabled to avoid the exponential growth of the prediction error as a function of the number of steps ahead, which made it possible to develop algorithms that predict many Lyapunov times (and many steps) ahead – the price for this turned out to be that some points remained non-predictable. In this work, we say that it is necessary to be of great help regarding the exemption and development of the scientific university. Method: This study proposes a self-healing algorithm, which is an iterative algorithm that takes as input the forecasts produced by the underlying prediction algorithm. At each iteration, the self-healing algorithm finds new possible predicted values, updates the status of the points from predictable to non-predictable or vice versa, and calculates new single predicted values for the predictable points. The study proposes several new algorithms for calculating a single prediction value and algorithms for determining non-predictable points. We have studied new publications of parameter estimates, importance monitoring, and predictive features with more views and size objectives. Results: In the results of our work, the new tools in specific indicators: RMSE was increased from 0.11 to 0.06, and MAPE was reduced from 0.38 to 0.04. Conclusion: Research has been conducted on the selection of parameters for the self-healing algorithm, its assessment, and the prediction quality compared to the existing prediction algorithm.

Qubahan Academic JournalVol. 4(3)
National Research University Higher School of Economics (RU), Intelligent Systems Research (United States) (US)
National Research University Higher School of Economics
Openalex Percentile: Top 44%
Time Series Analysis and Forecasting
0.35
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