Analyzing and forecasting dengue fever incidence in Thailand: A comprehensive study for public health preparedness

Thailand is currently grappling with a severe dengue fever outbreak, with a rising threat to public health as the rainy season and El Niño draw near. This year has witnessed a troubling surge in dengue cases, prompting the Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) to issue warnings that the numbers may hit a three-year peak. Dengue outbreaks in Thailand have historically followed a cyclical pattern, excluding COVID-19 years. This research employs data analysis and predictive modeling to forecast the forthcoming dengue case numbers in Thailand, facilitating better public health preparedness. It also incorporates data visualization for enhanced data exploration. Various forecasting models, including Exponential Smoothing, Polynomial Fitting and Random Forest, are deployed to predict dengue cases within the constraints of our data. This study offers valuable insights into the potential trajectory of dengue cases in Thailand, aiding proactive measures to combat the outbreak.