Feature Extraction Implementation in the Forecasting Method to Predict Indonesian Oil and Gas Exports and Imports

Future export and import predictions can use data mining and forecasting applications of data mining. Then, normalisation is carried out using datasets taken at the centre of the statistical agency using a mix-max scaler. The normalisation results are then calculated using several forecasting methods, such as Exponential Smoothing, SARIMAX, XGBoost, and CatBoost. The accuracy of this method can be improved by using feature extraction decomposition. They are decomposing, such as trend, residue, and seasonal. The results of the decomposition then become new features that are entered into the prediction model. The prediction results are evaluated using the root mean square error (RMSE). The smaller the RMSE, the better the results. The prediction results without using the method obtained by the Exponential Smoothing method have the best level of accuracy with an average RMSE value of 0.111 and the SARIMAX method with an average RMSE value of 0.146. Meanwhile, the prediction results using the CatBoost and XGBoost feature extraction methods have the best level of accuracy with an RMSE value of 0.046. From the results of the comparison of predictions, the addition of decomposition features to most forecasting methods can significantly increase the accuracy of the calculation.