Modeling of heat pumps load profiles for power systems integration

Heat pumps (HPs) are one of the most efficient heating technologies; their mass adoption will be required to decarbonize energy systems. However, to do so will require a better understanding of how they will impact electric grid load. Methods are needed to estimate not just their peak demand but also their impact on hourly load profiles. In this paper, we propose two methods, using easily accessible data, for estimating future hourly load profiles following the adoption of large populations of residential HPs. The first method uses feeder load data disaggregation while the second method uses annual space heating end-use energy consumption, both taking into account the temperature dependencies on coefficient of performance and output heat capacity. A case study based on data from Summerside, PE, Canada, is used to demonstrate and evaluate the two methods. • Two novel approaches to estimate heat pump hourly power profiles from aggregate public data. • The first method uses the distribution system residential load feeder power profiles. • The second method uses annual space heating energy usage. • Quantitative analysis of the model results using real-world data in Summerside City, PE, Canada. • Discussion on models’ generalization for practical implementation in different jurisdictions.