Globally suitable areas for <i>Lycorma delicatula</i> based on an optimized Maxent model

<i>Lycorma delicatula</i>, a globally invasive pest, has caused considerable economic losses in many countries. Determining the potential distribution range of <i>L. delicatula</i> is crucial for its effective management and control; however, our understanding of this species remains limited. In this study, Maxent model with occurrence records and environmental variables were fit first and then optimized by selecting the best combination of feature classes and regularization multipliers using the lowest score of corrected Akaike information criterion. Subsequently, we predicted global suitable areas for <i>L. delicatula</i> both currently and in the future (2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100). The results indicated that the mean temperature of the driest quarter is the most important environmental variable limiting <i>L. delicatula</i> distribution. Currently, the suitable areas are concentrated in East Asia (mainly in China, South Korea, and Japan), central and eastern United States, and southern Europe. Compared with current environmental conditions, in all future climate scenarios, the number of suitable areas for <i>L. delicatula</i> increased. In addition, we revealed that suitable areas are likely to expand northward in the future. Our study results suggest that policymakers and governments should prioritize the development of pest management measures in suitable areas for <i>L. delicatula</i>, especially in high suitable areas, to control this invasive pest and minimize global economic losses.

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Publication Details

Journal
Ecology and Evolution
Published
2024-09-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.70252
Citations
22
Primary Topic
Species Distribution and Climate Change
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
20.23

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article

Globally suitable areas for Lycorma delicatula based on an optimized Maxent model

Lin Yang, Zhengxue Zhao, Xiangsheng Chen
22 citations
Ecology and Evolution
Species Distribution and Climate Change
20.23
article

Globally suitable areas for Lycorma delicatula based on an optimized Maxent model

Lin Yang, Zhengxue Zhao, Xiangsheng Chen
article en
22 citations

Abstract

<i>Lycorma delicatula</i>, a globally invasive pest, has caused considerable economic losses in many countries. Determining the potential distribution range of <i>L. delicatula</i> is crucial for its effective management and control; however, our understanding of this species remains limited. In this study, Maxent model with occurrence records and environmental variables were fit first and then optimized by selecting the best combination of feature classes and regularization multipliers using the lowest score of corrected Akaike information criterion. Subsequently, we predicted global suitable areas for <i>L. delicatula</i> both currently and in the future (2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100). The results indicated that the mean temperature of the driest quarter is the most important environmental variable limiting <i>L. delicatula</i> distribution. Currently, the suitable areas are concentrated in East Asia (mainly in China, South Korea, and Japan), central and eastern United States, and southern Europe. Compared with current environmental conditions, in all future climate scenarios, the number of suitable areas for <i>L. delicatula</i> increased. In addition, we revealed that suitable areas are likely to expand northward in the future. Our study results suggest that policymakers and governments should prioritize the development of pest management measures in suitable areas for <i>L. delicatula</i>, especially in high suitable areas, to control this invasive pest and minimize global economic losses.

Ecology and EvolutionVol. 14(9)
Guizhou University (CN), Anshun University (CN)
National Natural Science Foundation of China
Openalex Percentile: Top 1%
Species Distribution and Climate Change
20.23
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