Climate and development: What opportunities, what threats?

The rise of climate change up the international agenda is an opportunity for development and poverty alleviation, but perhaps also a threat. An opportunity because the issues that climate change brings to the fore are similar to those that matter for development. Overlaps, complementarities, and synergies exist between investment and policies for development and those aimed at mitigating and adapting to climate change. A threat because trying to reduce emissions could come at the expense of international and national development efforts, and might be more expensive than traditional development strategies, meaning that funds and political capital are diverted away from development. Five areas of concern arise. Two are conceptual, around framing, and three are practical. The consequences of climate change are unjust. People on low incomes in the global south are likely to be hit hard by climate change, as they have few resources to adapt to a changed climate. Yet they, and their forebears, have contributed but a tiny fraction of the greenhouse gases that are heating the planet. The damage has been overwhelmingly done by people in high-income countries (HICs): yet the price will be paid by all, and disproportionately by people in low-income countries (LICs). The onus should be on the HICs to cut their emissions forthwith; to compensate the citizens of the rest of the world for the loss and damage that heating is causing and will cause; and to assist emerging economies to lower their emissions. Natural justice demands large flows of finance from the north to the global south, over and above existing aid promises. The transitions in energy and other sectors to (massively) reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions represent an opportunity for the global south, where much of the natural resources and low-cost labour needed to produce clean energy are located. Take, for example, the Sahel. No region on Earth has greater potential to generate solar power. If the world needs energy from renewable sources and sources with minimal emissions, climate funds should finance the solar arrays and power plants that will both meet national and regional needs and potentially produce a surplus for export. Investment could mean that most of Africa might never have to generate another watt of electricity from diesel generators. Investment at scale would transform energy supply, enabling cheap electricity to drive local industries, and so dynamize entire economies and end reliance on fossil fuels (and the subsidies that governments often underwrite). Similarly, farmers can capture carbon in their fields, using agroforestry to do so. Farmers in the global south can play an important role in decarbonizing the atmosphere. Pay them for carbon stored, promote agricultural development, reduce rural poverty—a triple win. Whatever political and policy choices are made, public budgets are limited—especially in a world where public debts have mounted and growth is faltering. The here-and-now forces hard choices on the global south: to invest in cleaner electricity or to roll out more health posts in underserved rural areas. Energy transitions in the global south can be quite gentle for some countries with low emissions, such as Kenya. Kenya does not have to make painful sacrifices to go carbon neutral. For other countries, however, the changes are formidable. Nigeria and South Africa, for example, where massive incumbent industries—oil and coal, respectively—are heavily invested in carbon. South Africa has 90,000 coal miners. What will they do when, as the government proposes by 2040, the mines are closed (IEA, 2019)? Some countries confront different issues, such as countries with the option to exploit recently discovered fossil fuels. Should Senegal, for example, be obliged to forego the chance to kick-start its economy with oil and gas when so many other countries have already done so? The dilemma is moral. How can governments across the world reach agreement on the changes that need to be made with the detail that applies to each and every country? How can countries commit to change—with costs, at least in the short term—when their governments and electorates fear that other countries will take a free ride on their abnegation? A narrative of global co-operation, a global compact, is missing. That compact must be fair; the north must be more generous to the global south than it has been. That is a hard question when populists in HICs prosper by denying their country has any obligation to—or interest in being generous to—other countries. We asked five distinguished scholars and practitioners from the global south to respond to these concerns, those of fairness, those of practical possibilities and obstacles. Contributors to this debate were, in alphabetical order, Adriana Abdenur, Habiba Daggash, Navroz K. Dubash, Jack Kimani, and Carlos Lopes. Their responses greatly expand the arguments, but they can still be distilled into a dichotomy, even if a different dichotomy to that of the original framing. The five essays tack between norms and hopes, between realities and fears. Norms and hopes: it is in everyone's interest to contain and arrest global heating; it is only fair that this should not be at the expense of raising the incomes and welfare of many millions, most of them in the global south, who live with poverty and deprivation. These two aims are linked: the consequences of a hotter world will impede growth and development across the world, and probably especially so in the global south. As the problems are linked, it is not surprising that there are win-win solutions. At the core of limiting global heating is a switch to renewable energy. The global south, Africa in particular, has huge potential to generate solar power; a potential made all the more feasible by the falling cost of photovoltaic panels. The natural resources for the panels and associated batteries exist in Africa: as does low-cost labour. The world needs green energy, Africa needs jobs and economic growth, Africa has the labour, the natural resources, and the sunlight: challenge meets opportunity. Reality, however, suggests that such promise will be hard to realize. International finance, public finance, for both development and fighting climate change has so far been too little: promises of funding made by rich countries have not been met, the little that has been given has often been counted twice. The reform of the global financial architecture has been incremental rather than radical. Private capital might meet the need, but such capital seeks short-term profit, sees green investments as less profitable and riskier than business-as-usual, business that includes developing yet more fossil fuels. It gets worse. Disappointment with international negotiations and agreements, where warm words hide frigid inaction, fuels nationalist discourse in which short-term domestic priorities prevail, no matter what global problems are mounting. Details can become stumbling blocks: neither development trajectories nor carbon transitions can be one-size-fits-all. Those countries whose natural resources allow for scaling up renewable energy have easier and different policy choices than countries still sitting on large reserves of fossil fuels. What makes the difference between fond hopes and everyday reality? Imagination is part of the answer. In the UK and some other HICs, there is a widespread belief that green alternatives are somehow more expensive than conventional means that pump out greenhouse gases—despite, for example, International Energy Agency that electricity from is than that from coal, or gas of being is a for and make sacrifices for their most of those short when it to what they to what they invest in HICs that can their they have become to being than this when it to green there is no that in will We need that are on and that that over the to will with the climate development. As the climate there is a to climate change across all of the international development reform at development to at the International from around the need to the to greater is being paid to and solutions. is not only of but also of many and regional is mounting. The of the climate makes it to take climate change into in development. The from the on make it that is not on to meet the by the on and its is the of countries and have been to global to above The is not to the climate and development but to do At the this to climate in international development is both and which should be is in three climate finance, development finance, and the is in reform of the international financial to many which are those for the of climate change into development have been on their climate includes the promise made by countries at in to in and is not the only economies are even the in at the to of national development. there is between those two resources, as as other of such as on in rich countries as part of development a As part of their economies are heavily in but hard to the their norms to development of in developing countries. In this the to to developing countries, another but never by to that the between and South to these economies at some a for the but what will it do if most of the world is being even even That is not the of climate change only do the in the of people and the they are also to in the that much need to all these these some countries and up and finance as a that capital will take of the massive demands of developing countries for both climate and development. is a especially when at areas other than where to most investment can finance and carbon come with and The massive demands for green and in developing countries the of investments that finance, by short-term profit, Those investments also need the to take a role in priorities and as the economies the most have come to at least in of their domestic The with the that climate is being into the development agenda is the on developing countries are in being to more and more their often across in that on the of but the problems of and emerging economies and even developing countries have the to their climate with to emissions some are it in such as fighting and it is neither fair nor to to the developing world to to problems overwhelmingly by the countries. The of but is there for a it to that developing countries will not have to between climate fighting developing countries are far more to climate change than they with to and the is especially of and also of many countries which to the are to of the and of its Some climate to poverty and but should be neither nor for Some and and other if is a need to that the drive to climate in economic and development does not represent a of from to developing and that the of climate change loss and and more a represent some of the of resources most developing countries can into to that will allow them not only to out climate but also and is especially for developing countries with or no to domestic resources, the more than and that are should be to climate there is a need to up to the of climate that they are as as who is and much of the resources are or climate nor development finance should to the over people live in countries that more than on health and If to into an of are to and they should also these flows on the can or the of climate change into the of global the of the international financial should rather than more to development. they should and rather than up more for A of by economies is up a of or climate such as the These not only an of global and but also a take on the of development. In on only of and climate the other two the and to developing countries little to the of greenhouse gas emissions. they end up in international co-operation, or in such as the and the climate can be to the between the climate and development in that are and it is also to that there are development needs that will not the of climate is only part of the to the problems of climate change and development and the of developing countries in global The international financial should not be made for only for climate but also for and all of the for the of and other in the of of the international financial and development is not a it at least a the need for reform that has become even more in of climate and development of developing countries in the green and is an to that the between the climate and development will do more than Nigeria to reach emissions by that many the and resources to meet this countries as a climate for countries their emissions. that would the development countries to promote which massive investment that only they can such as the and the The development financial they also their with the of their countries, a from fossil in developing economies The of for economies in this is at with the around not countries with the for climate the scale and to and for and is not at the Africa is the only not in energy are in the energy and climate policy of rich they to fossil often on the of energy and the of to more natural gas on similar are The of the and the natural gas only the because the needed to its away from the green in Africa often For example, the to green on the the and Africa to the to of it by and the local of the of for all to the different for economies and Africa, different national For example, Kenya has clean energy and resources, Nigeria and South Africa have on fossil fuels for and power Their natural resources and local makes it likely that their will that to economic development Africa should have the to that not with its more the there has been a on in climate as as and have to commit climate finance or other and the of the has some countries to climate to the of If the of climate the of would on countries with the means to with countries the of the For example, there would be emissions, or energy which climate such as carbon or fossil would not for and a a to policy developing countries and to development and climate climate finance should not for countries. of many being and in or at of on and It is no to more climate finance, and that is is also to the of the emissions are a not an is to when the and scale of in Africa, economic development and welfare should be the The to for the and economies have no to that Their with the little to clean which would to and and and needed for the energy in Africa, the onus is on the countries most for emissions to an where the can development climate Africa is not as a of natural resources but also as a for investment to and scale clean industries, countries have little to or climate The for a and around climate and development are likely are to development and a at global to the most The challenge to a global compact with the two by the of this and justice on the and opportunity on the capture important of the challenge of climate and development. because they and different of national and they to be as with little on their potential The and justice have come disproportionately from HICs are disproportionately by the For countries in the global south, is to the of and a for in to climate The for a climate in HICs, to and compensate and the financial and of to are not by the The opportunity in with natural in the global south as for with renewable energy is the energy the potential for across development and climate another many not choices as public and as development there are to each narrative in and political possibilities in them It too far to arguments, for example, to a between climate and development an that only countries must to climate change in to developing countries from so. it is in the of developing countries to do development by which will and by development choices that Similarly, the of and should not be to mean that these are or that the for their are natural with is in a different to is also on being to political economy from political to fossil such as around electricity and on to the of finance for what are The of falling renewable energy by no means a climate these an of their with each other the potential for a narrative around which a global compact can be climate HICs must on emissions there is a for and to also do development by development in that both and the need for climate is an of such to low-cost capital for the and of energy but also to and for and at least two such a the of to to around emissions in HICs have and are but far too to meet the global countries, from low of energy the challenge of energy even to renewable energy in HICs, that lower global emissions in the short will probably already countries to energy development The between rich world for or economies to forego development an energy or and potentially climate national political for is on an of green at rather than on a more of capital for development and of of national carbon rather than global around global public are the narrative of the What is to be the the is not all developing countries are green policy to even quite the at climate negotiations to on HICs for emissions and of financial for example, is to its resources to the of the global is on the to such in so will also rest on the and of domestic policies in countries and on their to domestic this is a much to development for and countries. green policy for a large domestic national and A global economy economic and are on countries as political and economic likely to only from the green economy for most of the developing are even more limiting for a development agenda and for for loss and damage the of a loss and damage the political is the of climate where finance is far less likely to be is where the of and the of is likely to most not all and on finance, and there are to be from and to development In the of for climate is to national for The potential is that some emerging economies with the have greater in their development the in for global has in for and for of change is the challenge and the threat to all on It demands and by all to lower emissions and reduce the of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere. however, global in with climate change has been on decarbonizing countries and with emissions to a more growth for which the Energy has been with low emissions to low of are and as climate they little to climate change, are often the of the and have to with that to and economic For these countries, the global so far has been on both and on loss and limiting the role of these countries in the climate to and does a huge to their potential to play a role in the climate These countries can be a massive and part of the global that a climate and this role can be the for them to and for their is especially if are to global the traditional economic growth which emissions as would be to these countries. The global carbon does not allow for global around this The from the global north to these countries is for is to adapt to the change and emissions as low as they which means so that emissions and if there is and the have with climate change, can is only is it but it is not in can countries from their growth, and if the world a for these countries they not only a threat to global climate but also to be a of and a and a in the this is not the only potential The that the world needs to a climate and climate carbon from the and existing carbon with low existing emissions are to For each of the and is by a of three renewable energy potential with labour and natural and resources, all of which are at low in much of scaling these Africa can and climate for most other global this does not or and painful and In it can jobs for energy and economic in many countries, solar energy can electricity with for as little as a few electricity That makes solar a energy even for which is not the in when energy is Africa can become a green and to meet and global across a of such as the of green fuels and energy such as green and all its such as green can to Africa and the and natural carbon and to carbon will the global carbon and to the damage this needs especially given that the for renewable energy come also that those are investment that and financial its renewable potential for Africa can generate electricity for all by the people any energy emissions associated with energy by and with lower it does more It is for the world to the and potential of Africa to be part of the climate and not a for it is for Africa to its in economic growth and global climate For to this growth and to global Africa needs fair and and that and In growth will growth to and by for a will allow countries to energy reduce and and and a for In the of climate finance, a is that the reliance on and as the means of the climate finance is by the that in traditional to developing countries, such as and by international financial has and the countries and to an already of an in the flows of funding to the most countries in their climate change, are a of which far from the financial that climate change made in climate that have not been to a The has come to that the is not financial and more funding in of the climate are a in a the in its to economies has in over the two especially in Africa, to the of the is by the of countries that have already their to the of the and the of the in Africa a of the financial that by the for the countries can respond to the of climate change. The is can no on and to climate change. The of the challenge that and and into the of it is to investment to their as carbon is changes are These changes should not but scale and up the to the between climate and development change, with its is a to development, and energy to the climate would any in global development finance and development must be as We must that investments need not must and profitable climate investment that allow all to in the climate change. a and investment that with climate and is to a of the of a of that into a of these many that there is a need to global financial architecture are a rather to the at is a to on incremental changes for such as the and the These changes often around these more for which would their to climate it is to that these do not the power that have contributed to some countries being to the of aid them to the policy The for the global financial architecture have been the policy and Africa is with a of the need for and to by a in some countries. The financial disproportionately funding countries to and funding sources on and with needs often to these resources, and to in carbon by These are in the they to the more that must their these power and the of by and economic will to a means that on and climate are often as in need of that they are riskier and less for the that are to more and the and in climate and and aid is not to climate change as it has not development. must that to in both climate change and development changes must be to a a of climate and development of investment global financial architecture a in and power the financial such as fossil and carbon or the are to in These changes should to scale up and up the investment policies that and can investment flows more the of climate and development priorities is that climate change is a to development, must the between these two finance and development finance should be as with investments both climate change and development the development of investment is to capital for climate and profitable climate investment it is for a of to to the climate change. These investment should with climate to and in global financial architecture are to power and fair to for countries. should go incremental changes and issues that reliance on and includes to the needs of developing countries and to finance for climate and there needs to be a in and climate the to can investments and capital that climate and the of of countries, the of in investment power the financial is includes fair to funding for efforts, in carbon and for a more of financial these issues, can a more and financial that climate and global development. In the in climate finance a that of climate and development of investment global financial architecture a in and power the financial and can the resources to climate change and promote development to for the issues, and and for and of not to this as no or the