Has the Pilot Project of Innovative Cities Increased Economic Growth? An Empirical Study Based on Chinese Cities

In an era of global economic slowdown, effectively stimulating urban economic development has become a critical challenge for governments around the world. Based on the panel data of 280 prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2017, this study adopts the double-difference method to evaluate the impacts of innovative cities pilot policies on urban economic growth, explore the mechanism through the intermediary effect model, and study the heterogeneity of cities with different development endowments by sub-samples. This study shows the following: (1) The policy of innovative pilot cities has significantly promoted their economic growth: GDP growth rates in the pilot cities are 1.14 percent higher than those in non-pilot cities. (2) The innovative city policy can effectively improve technological progress and human capital, thereby promoting economic growth. (3) The promotion effect of the pilot policy on the economy varies by region, city size, administration grade, market level, and government efficiency. Specifically, the policies have the most substantial positive effects in cities with lower administrative levels, smaller sizes, less market orientation, and higher government efficiency. This research, based on the city data from the world’s largest economy, evaluates the impact of government intervention—targeted urban innovation policies—on economic development, providing valuable insights into how innovation policies can be tailored and optimized for diverse urban contexts.