Droughts and windstorms due to climate change increase variability in species and trait composition of a subtropical monsoon evergreen broadleaf forest in China

Climate change is accelerating alterations in forest species and community composition worldwide, especially following extreme events like severe droughts and windstorms. Understanding these effects on subtropical forests is crucial for conservation and forest management, but it remains unclear whether the impacts are stochastic or deterministic. We analyzed a unique dataset from a 1-ha permanent plot in a subtropical monsoon broadleaf evergreen forest in China, monitored over 26 years with six surveys from 1994 to 2020. The forest has been free from anthropogenic disturbances for over 400 years. In each survey, we measured all trees with a diameter at breast height (DBH) ​≥ ​1 ​cm, and recorded 11 plant functional traits relating to photosynthesis, wood properties, water use, and nutrient dynamics. Using this data, we calculated species and trait dispersion, assessing short-term (∼5 years) and long-term (26 years) trends in species and trait composition following severe droughts and windstorm events. Severe droughts, and subsequent droughts, increased both species and trait dispersion, while species composition converged, and trait dispersion remained relatively stable throughout the recovery period. Windstorm events led to increased species dispersion but decreased trait dispersion. We observed a clear directional shift in both species and trait composition under these climatic stressors, with a more pronounced increase in trait dispersion compared to species dispersion. In the short term (∼5 years), severe droughts and windstorms increased species composition divergence, while trait composition responses varied. Over 26 years, deterministic processes mainly drove community composition changes, especially for trait composition, although stochastic processes also played a role. These findings suggest enhancing forest resilience to climatic stressors by protecting adaptive species or increasing species diversity in management practices.