Working from home and commuter travel in germany – panel data analysis of long-term effects

Working from home (WFH) is expected to be part of the ‘new normal’ in a post-pandemic future. WFH is often discussed as a contribution to climate protection, as WFH has the potential to reduce travel and emissions. However, there are also long-term rebound effects, which are under-investigated. These long-term effects are relevant for assessing the potential of new hybrid work concepts as a measure to improve sustainability. This paper aims to examine (1) the relationship between WFH, commuting distance and long-term effects by, (2a) the impact of WFH on the changes in commuting distance between 2011 and 2013, and (2b) the impact of commuting distance on the changes in WFH between 2011 and 2013. We used panel data from the ‘Families in Germany’ study (FiD) 2013 with changes to 2011. In this dataset, workers who WFH at least once per week had 29 % longer commuting distances than those who did not WFH. We found that the effects of WFH only show up years later when a change in commuting distance is pending, e.g., due to relocation. The change in commuting distances between 2011 and 2013 was 8.5 km higher for workers with constantly high WFH levels from 2011 to 2013 and a shift in commuting distance. Moreover, workers with a long commuting distance throughout the period tended to increase WFH between 2011 and 2013.