A One-mile Run Prediction Formula For The Elite Distance Runner

In the world of elite distance running, many physiological variables can serve as indicators of success. Lab tests and field tests for VO2max have been previously developed and validated. Many prediction formulas are utilized in the running community for longer distance races, however, it has yet to be elucidated on the effectiveness of predicting 1-mile run times in the elite distance runners. PURPOSE: To develop a performance prediction formula for that would be suitable for estimating 1-mile race times in elite runners. METHODS: Fifteen pre-, current, and post-collegiate elite distance runners from a Minneapolis running club, ten male (Age = 19.9 ± 4.3 yrs, ht. = 177.5 ± 8.1 cm, wt. = 63.83 ± 7.1 kg) and five females (Age = 19.1 ± 1.6 yrs, ht. = 164.1 ± 6.9 cm, wt. = 57.7 ± 5.5 kg) participated. Descriptive values were obtained. All were measured for body composition with air displacement plethysmography, and VO2max with Bruce graded exercise test. Mean body composition 11.6 + 3.8, Bruce time 15.9 + 2.3 minutes, VO2max 62.1 + 7.5 ml/kg/min. Regression factors of age, weight, height, gender, percent fat, VO2max, and Bruce treadmill time was performed in the multiple linear model to predict 1-mile race time. Homogeneity of intercept and slope was tested to determine the effect of gender on predicting 1-Mile Run Times. Alpha level of .05. RESULTS: The first variable tested was the Bruce Time to fatigue, which was a significant predictor 1-Mile Run Time, R2 = .89, F(1,13) = 108.4, p < .001. The next variable height, did add significant additional variation in 1-Mile Run Time after Bruce Time and was added to the model, t(12) = 2.8, p = .017, and retained. The regression statistics for the two predictors, Bruce Time and Height were: F(2,12) = 85.8, p < .001, R2 = .93, SEE = 0.171 min. The factors of body weight, VO2max, and gender all significantly correlated with 1-Mile Run Time, but failed to add significant additional variation to the prediction formula. The final model for predicting 1-Mile Run Time: 1-Mile Run Time (min) = 13.384 - (0.149 x Bruce Time (min)) - (3.472 x Height (m)), with R2 = .93, SEE = 0.171 min. CONCLUSION: The derived model provides a useful laboratory test for estimating 1-mile run times from Height and Bruce protocol time to fatigue. The accuracy of the derived model is similar to other submax field tests based on other models. Augsburg University Office of Undergraduate Research Opportunities (URGO)