Dynamic evolution of causal relationships among cryptocurrencies: an analysis via Bayesian networks

Abstract Understanding the relationships between cryptocurrencies is important for making informed investment decisions in this financial market. Our study utilises Bayesian networks to examine the causal interrelationships among six major cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Binance Coin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Ripple, and Tether. Beyond understanding the connectedness, we also investigate whether these relationships evolve over time. This understanding is crucial for developing profitable investment strategies and forecasting methods. Therefore, we introduce an approach to investigate the dynamic nature of these relationships. Our observations reveal that Tether, a stablecoin, behaves distinctly compared to mining-based cryptocurrencies and stands isolated from the others. Furthermore, our findings indicate that Bitcoin and Ethereum significantly influence the price fluctuations of the other coins, except for Tether. This highlights their key roles in the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Additionally, we conduct diagnostic analyses on constructed Bayesian networks, emphasising that cryptocurrencies generally follow the same market direction as extra evidence for interconnectedness. Moreover, our approach reveals the dynamic and evolving nature of these relationships over time, offering insights into the ever-changing dynamics of the cryptocurrency market.