Changes in Spatiotemporal Pattern and Its Driving Factors of Suburban Forest Defoliating Pest Disasters

Forest defoliating pests are significant global forest disturbance agents, posing substantial threats to forest ecosystems. However, previous studies have lacked systematic analyses of the continuous spatiotemporal distribution characteristics over a complete 3–5 year disaster cycle based on remote sensing data. This study focuses on the Dendrolimus superans outbreak in the Changbai Mountain region of northeastern China. Utilizing leaf area index (LAI) data derived from Sentinel-2A satellite images, we analyze the extent and dynamic changes of forest defoliation. We comprehensively examine the spatiotemporal patterns of forest defoliating pest disasters and their development trends across different forest types. Using the geographical detector method, we quantify the main influencing factors and their interactions, revealing the differential impacts of various factors during different growth stages of the pests. The results show that in the early stage of the Dendrolimus superans outbreak, the affected area is extensive but with mild severity, with newly affected areas being 23 times larger than during non-outbreak periods. In the pre-hibernation stage, the affected areas are smaller but more severe, with a cumulative area reaching up to 8213 hectares. The spatial diffusion characteristics of the outbreak follow a sequential pattern across forest types: Larix olgensis, Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica, Picea koraiensis, and Pinus koraiensis. The most significant influencing factor during the pest development phase was the relative humidity of the year preceding the outbreak, with a q-value of 0.27. During the mitigation phase, summer precipitation was the most influential factor, with a q-value of 0.12. The combined effect of humidity and the low temperatures of 2020 had the most significant impact on both the development and mitigation stages of the outbreak. This study’s methodology achieves a high-precision quantitative inversion of long-term disaster spatial characteristics, providing new perspectives and tools for real-time monitoring and differentiated control of forest pest infestations.