Study on Urban Land Simulation under the Perspective of Local Climate Zoning—A Case Study of Guiyang City

The examination of land-use change simulations across a range of scenarios represents a pivotal research avenue for the advancement of sustainable development analysis. Nevertheless, the extant research merely categorises all building land in a land-use classification into a single category, which is unable to provide a detailed analysis of the dynamic internal spatial form of the city. This paper analyses 17 LCZ land-use types in Guiyang City in 2013 and 2022, and reclassifies them into 7 RLCZ land-use types based on the height of urban building sites. It also proposes three possible scenarios of BAU, WLC, and SPC in 2040 and simulates their land-use changes using the PLUS model. The results demonstrate that (1) the size of low-rise buildings in Guiyang has declined significantly over the past decade; (2) built-up land within cities is significantly affected by drivers such as night-time lighting, topography, elevation, and roads; (3) the SPC scenario emphasises a development pattern of land intensification and a focus on high density in urban built space. It also protects the stability of the ecosystem. The scenario can provide informative suggestions for spatial pattern changes in rapidly developing cities such as Guiyang.