A 3D Seismotectonic Model and the Spatiotemporal Relationship of Two Historical Large Earthquakes in the Linfen Basin, North China

The Shanxi Graben is a transitional zone between the Ordos Block and North China Plain with complex structures and frequent earthquakes. Six earthquakes with M ≥ 7.0 have been recorded in the area, including the 1303 Hongtong M 8 and 1695 Linfen M 7.8 earthquakes in the Linfen Basin. Research on these two large earthquakes, closely related in time and space, is lacking. Our objective was to use deep seismic reflection profiles and 3D velocity structure data from previous research, along with seismological observation results, to interpret the geological structure near the source of the two earthquakes. A 3D geometric model of the seismogenic fault was constructed, and the relationships among the deep and shallow structures, deep seismogenic environment, and two large earthquakes were explored. Differences in seismogenic environment between the southern and northern Linfen Basin were identified. The distribution of small earthquakes in the southern Linfen Basin was scattered, and the overall distribution was at depths <25 km. The small earthquakes in the northern part of the basin were dense and concentrated at depths of 25–35 km. Low-velocity layers at an approximate depth of 15–20 km in the southern basin led to differences in seismogenesis between the two regions. Based on the area of the 3D geometric model of the Huoshan Fault, the maximum magnitude of an earthquake caused by fault rupture is Mw 7.7, so the magnitude of the 1303 Hongtong earthquake might be overestimated. Numerical simulation results of Coulomb stress showed that the 1303 Hongtong earthquake had a stress-loading effect on the 1695 Linfen earthquake. The change in Coulomb rupture stress was 1.008–2.543 bar, which is higher than the generally considered earthquake trigger threshold (0.1 bar). We created a new 3D source model of large earthquakes in the Linfen Basin, Shanxi Province, providing a reference and typical cases for risk assessment of large earthquakes in different regions of the Shanxi Graben.