Exploring algorithms to select candidates for non-selective beta-blockers in cirrhosis: A post hoc analysis of the PREDESCI trial

The PREDESCI trial demonstrated that non-selective beta-blockers prevent decompensation in patients with clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH). Still, it is unclear whether we can select treatment candidates using non-invasive tests to assess the presence of CSPH without measuring HVPG (hepatic venous pressure gradient). In the prospective cohort of patients screened during the PREDESCI trial, we showed that algorithms based on liver stiffness and platelet count had suboptimal performance, mainly due to a high rate of indeterminate results. Performing endoscopy on patients in the grey zone significantly increased the number correctly characterized as having CSPH and improved the risk stratification for decompensation or death on long-term follow-up. These findings were validated in an independent cohort. In addition, a model using spleen stiffness instead of endoscopy showed similar diagnostic performance in the external validation cohort, suggesting that adequate risk stratification to select treatment candidates can be achieved with a fully non-invasive algorithm.