Prediction of geomagnetic storms associated with interplanetary coronal mass ejections

Geomagnetic storms have a significant impact on the performance of technical systems both in space and on Earth. The sources of strong geomagnetic storms are most often interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), generated by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the solar corona. The ICME forecast is based on regular optical observations of the Sun, which make it possible to detect CMEs at the formation stage. It is known that the intensity of geomagnetic storms correlates with the magnitude of the southern component of the magnetic field (Bz) of the ICME. However, it is not possible yet to predict the sign and magnitude ofBzfrom solar observations for the operational forecast of an arbitrary CME. Under these conditions, a preliminary forecast of the magnetic storm probability can be obtained under the assumption that the strength of the storm is related to the magnitude of the magnetic flux from the eruption region, observed as dimming. In this paper we examine the relationship between the integral magnetic flux from the dimming region and the probability that CMEs associated with them will cause geomagnetic storms, using a series of 37 eruptive events in 2010–2012. It is shown that there is a general trend toward an increase in the ICMEs geoefficiency with an increase in the magnitude of the magnetic flux from the dimming region. It has been demonstrated that the frequency of moderate and severe storms observation increases in cases of complex events associated with the interaction of CMEs with other solar wind streams in the heliosphere.