Global Distribution Prediction of Cyrtotrachelus buqueti Guer (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) Insights from the Optimised MaxEnt Model

<i>Cyrtotrachelus buqueti</i> Guer is a major pest affecting bamboo forests economically, causing significant damage to bamboo forests in Sichuan Province, China. To understand how <i>C. buqueti</i> responds to future climate conditions, an optimized Maximum Entropy Model (Maxent) was used to simulate the potential global distribution patterns of <i>C. buqueti</i> under current climate conditions and three different future climate scenarios and to analyze the dominant factors influencing its distribution. The results indicate that Bio18 (precipitation of the warmest quarter), Bio04 (temperature seasonality), Bio06 (minimum temperature of the coldest month), and Bio02 (mean diurnal temperature range) are the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of this species. The global area of high-suitability habitats for <i>C. buqueti</i> is 9.00 × 10⁴ km², primarily distributed in China. Under three different future climate scenarios, there are varying degrees of expansion in both the total suitable habitat and the medium-suitability areas for <i>C. buqueti</i>. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the medium-suitability area of the species increases the most, reaching 9.83 × 10⁴ km². Additionally, these findings can serve as a reference for developing and implementing control strategies, assisting relevant authorities in more effectively managing and controlling this pest, and mitigating its potential threats to bamboo forest ecosystems and economies.