The Risk of Earthquakes in Romania – A Statistical Point of View

From a seismic point of view, Romania is dominated by the events in the Vrancea area.There was only one major earthquake that occurred in the last 300 years with its epicentre outside this area.A seismic risk assessment involves the estimation of the probability of damage and losses resulting from potential future earthquakes.This damage and loss might occur to buildings, infrastructure, people, or even the environment.Our study starts with the inventorying and statistical processing of information regarding seismic events grouped by intensity classes.The connection between the depth of the focal point and the intensity of earthquakes, the frequency of destructive earthquakes, as well as the statistical distribution of significant earthquakes, are subject to analysis.The statistical models of behaviour on different intensity classes of the magnitude are being tested.Calculations are made regarding the statistical characteristics of strong earthquakes in the Vrancea seismogenic area in the Carpathian Mountains -Romania, as well as the distribution of significant earthquakes over 50-year timespans.We've found a strong correlation between the depth of the epicentre and the intensity of the earthquake.For the destructive earthquakes, simulations were carried, using the proper function.At intervals of 50 years each, the chances of recording less than three events are moderate, between one and ten are higher, and more than ten are low.