Applying palaeoecological analogues to contemporary challenges: community-level effects of canopy gaps caused by systematic decline of a prevalent tree species

Abstract Temperate woodland vegetation is initially determined by spatiotemporal and historical factors, mediated by complex biotic interactions. However, catastrophic events such as disease outbreaks (e.g., sweet chestnut blight, ash dieback), infestations of insect pests, and human-accelerated climate change can create canopy gaps due to systematic decline in, or loss of, tree species that was once an important part of the canopy. Resultant cascade effects have the potential to alter the composition of woodland ecosystems quickly and radically, but inherent lag times make primary research into these effects challenging. Here, we explore change in woodland vegetation at 10 sites in response to canopy opening using the Elm Decline, a rapid loss of Ulmus in woodlands across northwestern Europe ~ 5800 years ago that coexisted alongside other stressors such as increasing human activity, as a palaeoecological analogue. For arboreal taxa, community evenness significantly decreased, within-site turnover significantly increased, and richness remained unchanged. Changes in arboreal taxa were highly site-specific but there was a substantial decline in woody climbing taxa, especially Hedera (ivy), across the majority of sites. For shrub taxa, richness significantly increased but evenness and turnover remained consistent. Interestingly, however, there was a significant increase in abundance of shrubs at 70% of sites, including Calluna (heather), Ilex (holly) and Corylus (hazel), suggesting structural change. Surprisingly, there was no change in richness, evenness or turnover for herb taxa, possibly because change was highly variable spatially. However, there was a marked uptick in the disturbance indicator Plantago (plantain). Overall, these findings suggest that woodlands with sustained reduction in, or loss of, a tree species that once formed an important part of the canopy has profound, but often spatially idiosyncratic, impacts on vegetation diversity (richness), composition (evenness), stability (turnover), and on abundance of specific taxa, especially within the shrub layer. Use of this palaeoecological analogue, which was itself complicated by cooccurring changes in human activity, provides a valuable empirical insight into possible cascade effects of similar change in canopy opening in contemporary settings, including Ash Dieback.