Development of predictive indices for evaluating the UHI adaptation potential of green roof- and wall-based scenarios in the Mediterranean climate

Urban heat islands can jeopardize urban inhabitants, but the installation of green roofs (GRs) and walls (GWs) can contribute to mitigating urban overheating. The present study provides novel indices to easily predict the spatial median variation in air temperature at pedestrian heights related to the application of GR- and GW-based scenarios during the hottest hours of a typical summer day by varying the building height (BH), coverage percentage, and leaf area index. The indices are meant to be applied to built areas with 0.3-0.4 urban density in the Mediterranean climate and are derived from regression models fed with the outputs of 281 simulations of three urban areas developed and run in ENVI-met software. The developed models are all highly significant. The GR model shows that mitigation is influenced by all three parameters, and it can estimate mitigation with a root mean square error of 0.05 °C. Compared with the other parameters, the GW models revealed that the BH did not influence the decrease in air temperature. The green façade and living wall (LW) indices predict mitigation with errors of 0.04 °C and 0.05 °C, respectively. However, for the LW model, further parameters should be considered to improve its reliability.