A system of ODEs for representing trends of CGM signals

Abstract Diabetes Mellitus is a metabolic disorder which may result in severe and potentially fatal complications if not well-treated and monitored. In this study, a quantitative analysis of the data collected using CGM (Continuous Glucose Monitoring) devices from eight subjects with type 2 diabetes in good metabolic control at the University Polyclinic Agostino Gemelli, Catholic University of the Sacred Heart, was carried out. In particular, a system of ordinary differential equations whose state variables are affected by a sequence of stochastic perturbations was proposed and used to extract more informative inferences from the patients’ data. For this work, Matlab and R programs were used to find the most appropriate values of the parameters (according to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC)) for each patient. Fitting was carried out by Particle Swarm Optimization to minimize the ordinary least squares error between the observed CGM data and the data from the ODE model. Goodness of fit tests were made in order to assess which probability distribution was best suitable for representing the waiting times computed from the model parameters. Finally, both parametric and non-parametric density estimation of the frequency histograms associated with the variability of the glucose elimination rate from blood were conducted and their representative parameters assessed from the data. The results show that the chosen models succeed in capturing most of the glucose fluctuations for almost every patient.