The Influence of Morphological Elements of Urban Gated Communities on Road Network Connectivity: A Study of 120 Samples of the Central Districts of Jinan, China

Currently, the dominant gated communities (GCs) in Chinese cities have fragmented the urban road network, causing traffic congestion, energy consumption, carbon emissions, and environmental pollution. The morphological elements of GCs are key factors affecting road network connectivity. This paper aimed to explore the influence of the morphological elements of GCs on road network connectivity, to provide a quantitative basis for the evaluation and renovation of the connectivity of GCs, and to provide insights for urban planning and policy. This paper quantitatively analyzed the connectivity of GCs using 120 samples from the central districts of Jinan, China. Morphological elements were the independent variables, while route directness (RD) and the network distance (D) to the nearest entrance were the dependent variables. RD measured the internal connectivity, and D measured the connectivity between the internal and external road networks of GCs. GIS was used to measure RD and D, and SPSS was used to conduct a correlation analysis to identify significant variables. Multiple linear regression and LASSO regression were used to test the influence of these factors on RD and D. LASSO regression was employed to construct prediction models for RD and D. We found that intersection density had the greatest impact on RD, while the number of entrances and exits, and the scale of GCs, had the greatest impact on D. Using thresholds of D = 250 and RD = 1.3, the four types of GCs were classified and corresponding renovation measures were proposed.