Assessing the value of harmful algal bloom forecasts in the Pacific Northwest

Abstract Over the past three decades, fisheries and livelihoods on the coasts of Washington and Oregon have been severely impacted by the presence of harmful algal blooms (HABs) that produce domoic acid, a neurotoxin that accumulates in shellfish and endangers public health. Among others, recreational razor clams and commercial Dungeness crab fisheries along the Pacific Northwest (PNW) have been negatively affected, jeopardizing the economies of coastal communities that depend on tourist revenues and income generated through visits of harvesters in the region. The PNW HAB Bulletin, launched in 2008, publishes forecasts on incoming HAB events, which has enabled managers to increase toxin monitoring in high-risk locations and proceed with selected harvesting at safe beaches and delays or closures of fishing seasons, as required. In light of the value of the HAB Bulletin to local managers and communities and the occasional challenges of securing sufficient resources to ensure its continuation, this study attempts to assess the value of information (VOI) for the predictions provided by the Bulletin. Results of the study show that ongoing financial support of the Bulletin is economically justifiable. The value of HAB forecast is positively related to three primary factors: the frequency of HAB events, the precision of forecast, and the number of social and economic sectors benefiting from the forecast. The expected increase in HAB frequency and intensity due to climate change, coupled with advancements in forecasting accuracy through technological development, is anticipated to enhance the value of the forecast program.