Characteristics and trends of <scp>Atlantic</scp> tropical cyclones that do and do not develop from <scp>African</scp> easterly waves

Abstract Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) are known to develop from African easterly waves (AEWs) that propagate across North Africa and out over the Atlantic Ocean. The relationship between AEWs and TCs has been the subject of numerous previous studies. There are, however, many Atlantic TCs that do not have AEW origins. In this study, we provide a novel analysis of the characteristics and trends of Atlantic TCs both with and without AEW origins using 43 years of observational and reanalysis data. To conduct this research, we identified TCs with and without AEW origins from the observational record between 1980 and 2022, and ran objective tracking algorithms on reanalysis data to identify the AEWs and TCs during this time period. We found statistically significant differences in the characteristics and environments of TCs with and without AEW origins. TCs with AEW origins are stronger and costlier, experience more favorable environmental conditions, and are more likely to make landfall in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean when compared to TCs without AEW origins. Additionally, the 43‐year increasing trend in Atlantic TC activity is primarily driven by an increase in TCs with AEW origins that is associated with increasing AEW frequency and strength, with anthropogenic aerosols potentially driving this trend. In contrast, we found no trend in TCs without AEW origins.

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Publication Details

Journal
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Published
2024-09-17
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4850
Citations
8
Primary Topic
Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
3.01

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article

Characteristics and trends of Atlantic tropical cyclones that do and do not develop from African easterly waves

Emily Bercos‐Hickey, Christina M. Patricola
8 citations
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
3.01
article

Characteristics and trends of Atlantic tropical cyclones that do and do not develop from African easterly waves

Emily Bercos‐Hickey, Christina M. Patricola
article en
8 citations

Abstract

Abstract Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) are known to develop from African easterly waves (AEWs) that propagate across North Africa and out over the Atlantic Ocean. The relationship between AEWs and TCs has been the subject of numerous previous studies. There are, however, many Atlantic TCs that do not have AEW origins. In this study, we provide a novel analysis of the characteristics and trends of Atlantic TCs both with and without AEW origins using 43 years of observational and reanalysis data. To conduct this research, we identified TCs with and without AEW origins from the observational record between 1980 and 2022, and ran objective tracking algorithms on reanalysis data to identify the AEWs and TCs during this time period. We found statistically significant differences in the characteristics and environments of TCs with and without AEW origins. TCs with AEW origins are stronger and costlier, experience more favorable environmental conditions, and are more likely to make landfall in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean when compared to TCs without AEW origins. Additionally, the 43‐year increasing trend in Atlantic TC activity is primarily driven by an increase in TCs with AEW origins that is associated with increasing AEW frequency and strength, with anthropogenic aerosols potentially driving this trend. In contrast, we found no trend in TCs without AEW origins.

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological SocietyVol. 150(765)
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (US), Iowa State University (US)
U.S. Department of Energy, National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research
Life below water
Openalex Percentile: Top 8%
Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
3.01
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Characteristics and trends of <scp>Atlantic</scp> tropical cyclones that do and do not develop from <scp>African</scp> easterly waves — Emily Bercos‐Hickey, Christina M. Patricola · Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (2024) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS