Macroeconomic Determinants of the Gap between Domestic and International Gold Prices in Vietnam

This research investigates the factors influencing the disparity between domestic gold prices (SJC gold and 9999 gold) and global gold prices in Vietnam from January 2011 to December 2023. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, we identify key macroeconomic determinants impacting this price spread, including interest rates, oil prices, and consumer demand. Our findings reveal that higher interest rates are associated with larger price spreads, suggesting that monetary policy plays a significant role in the domestic gold market. Oil prices exhibit a negative relationship with the price spread for 9999 gold, indicating that rising oil prices tend to align domestic gold prices more closely with global trends. Consumer demand notably affects the SJC_Global price spread but not the 9999_Global spread, reflecting the different market dynamics of finished goods versus raw materials. Additionally, the error correction terms in both models indicate a robust mechanism for long-term equilibrium, demonstrating the Vietnamese gold market’s resilience. These insights highlight the need for policymakers to reconsider existing regulations, such as Decree 24, to ensure a stable and efficient gold market. The study concludes that while the Vietnamese gold market exhibits sustainable practices, regulatory revisions are necessary to support both market growth and community development. Future research should consider additional macroeconomic variables and the impact of regulatory changes over time to further understand the dynamics of gold price disparities in Vietnam.