Immigration Shocks and Unfounded Concerns About Crime: Evidence from Haitian Migration to Chile

A large rise in migration in certain areas of the world since 2010 has triggered frequent unsubstantiated claims in politics, the media, and everyday life of a causal connection between migration and crime. We examine whether rapid and large demographic changes (i.e., immigration shocks) affect people’s level of concern about crime. We use administrative and survey data from Chile, which has recently experienced a historic influx of migrants. Using a dynamic difference-in-differences design, we provide evidence suggesting that a rapid shift in Haitian migration at the local level led to an increase in concerns about crime. However, we find no evidence that immigration shocks have affected actual crime rates. Given that prior research has documented racial discrimination against Haitians in Chile, our findings suggest that prejudice and stereotypes toward nonwhite newcomers may trigger misconceptions about crime.