Multi-scenario simulation prediction of land use in Nanchang based on network robustness analysis

• Identify important ecological sources by assessing ecosystem service functions and ecological sensitivity. • Robustness analysis was used to analyze the stability of the ecological network structure across multiple scenarios. • Combining the ecological network structure, the PLUS model was used to predict the land use situation of Nanchang in 2030. • Ecological protection scenario can effectively ensure the sustainable development of cities. In recent decades, rapid and disorderly urbanization has led to the fragmentation of habitat patches, placing the biodiversity of these areas and their surroundings at significant risk. By exploring the stability of ecological network and predicting the spatial change pattern of land use in the future, the contradiction between regional development and ecological protection could be effectively alleviated. Therefore, we selected Nanchang as the research object, identified important ecological sources through assessing ecological services and sensitivity, identified potential ecological corridors and stepping stones with the help of circuit theory to conduct stepping-stone ecological networks, and utilized robustness analysis to evaluate the stability of the networks under different scenarios. Finally, we used the PLUS model to predict future land use change in Nanchang. The results showed that 19 ecological sources covering a total area of 1537.99 km 2 were identified in Nanchang, with resistance values showing a trend of being high in the center and low on the periphery. Additionally, according to circuit theory, there were 31 potential corridors and 224 stepping-stone ecological patches in the study area, with a total stepping stone area of 35.08 km 2 . Through the establishment of the stepping-stone network, there were 609 active connections within the network, and the density of the ecological network varied across different regions. The results of the robustness analysis indicated that the stability of the stepping-stone network varied under different scenarios, with the central failure scenario being able to ensure the network’s stability to the greatest extent. In comparison to the natural development scenario, under the ecological protection scenario, the areas of forest land, grassland, water bodies, and other ecological lands experienced slight increases, while the decrease rate of cultivated land and the expansion rate of construction land both slowed down. The research results can provide a reference for guiding the rational development of urban and promoting the function of regional ecological land use as much as possible.