Changes in landscape ecological risk in the Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm source control project area from a spatiotemporal perspective

The comprehensive effect of multi-source factors has altered the landscape pattern and ecological processes within the Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Control Project (BTSSCP) area, resulting in a fragile environment. Scientific evaluation of the landscape ecological risk (LER) in the project area and identification of the drivers of landscape ecological risk are crucial for preventing and resolving ecological risks and protecting the ecosystem in northern China. This study aims to establish an ecological risk assessment framework, analyze the spatiotemporal changes in the LER in the BTSSCP area from 2000 to 2020, evaluate different factors in depth using the Geodetector model, and predict the LER in 2030 under multiple development scenarios using the patch-generating land use model. The results showed that (1) the dominant land use type in the BTSSCP area was grassland, accounting for more than 50 % of the total area, followed by cropland, unused land, and woodland. (2) The average LERI values in the BTSSCP area for 2000, 2010, and 2020 were 0.023, 0.022, and 0.021, respectively. This demonstrates that the LER in the study as a whole was low and steadily declined. (3) The LER in the project area was influenced by multiple factors. Overall, the evolution of the LER in the study area was primarily affected by natural factors, and the amount of interaction among the multiple factors increased over time. Locally, the normalized difference vegetation index and mean annual temperature were both important factors in this area.