Intergenerational Power Shift and the Rise of Nonarranged Marriages Among Refugees

The experiences of war and refugee status can alter intrafamily dynamics, with implications for family formation, including marriage. We use the nationally representative Syrian Migrant Sample of the 2018 Turkey Demographic Health Survey (TDHS-S) to conduct a duration analysis of marriage outcomes among Syrian refugees in Turkey, tracking women throughout their residence in prewar Syria (before the conflict began in 2011), postwar Syria (after the conflict began but before arrival in Turkey), and Turkey. We find that early marriage was more prominent among refugees who were unmarried at the time of migration than among those married before migration; the mean marriage age dropped from 19.6 in prewar Syria to 19.1 in postwar Syria and 18.1 in Turkey. Using the TDHS-S and prewar Syrian surveys, we show that this finding aligns with the observed declines in household income and young women's opportunity cost of marriage. Our duration analysis also reveals a notable shift from traditional arranged marriages to more modern marriage forms among refugees in Turkey. An intergenerational power shift might drive the shift toward nonarranged marriages. After arrival in Turkey, wealth and employment of parents decline among refugees. In contrast, Syrian youth in Turkey have higher age-adjusted employment rates than in prewar Syria. Moreover, nonarranged marriages increase more among demographic groups with stronger intergenerational power shifts than among groups with weaker shifts.