Prospectively predicting BPaMZ phase IIb/III trial outcomes using a translational mouse-to-human platform

Despite known treatments, tuberculosis (TB) remains the world's top infectious killer, highlighting the pressing need for new drug regimens. To prioritize the most efficacious drugs for clinical testing, we previously developed a PK-PD translational platform with bacterial dynamics that reliably predicted short-term monotherapy outcomes in Phase IIa trials from preclinical mouse studies. In this study, we extended our platform to include PK-PD models that account for drug-drug interactions in combination regimens and bacterial regrowth in our bacterial dynamics model to predict cure at the end of treatment and relapse 6 months post-treatment. The Phase III STAND trial testing a new regimen comprised of pretomanid (Pa), moxifloxacin (M), and pyrazinamide (Z) (PaMZ) was suspended after a separate ongoing trial (NC-005) suggested that adding bedaquiline (B) to the PaMZ regimen would improve efficacy. To forecast if the addition of B would, indeed, benefit the PaMZ regimen, we applied an extended translational platform to both regimens. We predicted currently available short- and long-term clinical data well for drug combinations related to BPaMZ. We predicted the addition of B to PaMZ to shorten treatment duration by 2 months and to have similar bacteriological success to standard HRZE treatment (considering only treatment success but not withdrawal from side effects and other adverse events), both at the end of treatment for treatment efficacy and 6 months after treatment has ended in relapse prevention. Using BPaMZ as a case study, we have demonstrated our translational platform can predict Phase II and III outcomes prior to actual trials, allowing us to better prioritize the regimens most likely to succeed.