The changing South in presidential elections

We examine presidential elections in the American South. Our empirical starting point is the 2008 election of Democrat Barack Obama. We discuss political dynamics leading up to this historic contest but focus our analysis on the last four elections concluding with the defeat of President Trump in 2020. Tapping into recent southern politics scholarship emphasizing partisan patterns that differ based on population growth (or lack thereof), we show how this factor affects presidential voting with an assemblage of data collected at the state-, county-, and individual-level. We first consider the prominence of presidential Republicanism across the 11 southern states. Next, we delve into these states’ counties to further assess two-party competition in presidential contests. Finally, drawing on Cooperative Election Study (CES) data, controlling for a host of factors, we examine whether varying population rates at the state- and county-level affect presidential preferences. The U.S. South is forever changing, and in presidential politics substantial alterations to its electorate generally favor an emerging Democratic Party.